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penfield"Glory is not a conceit. It is not a decoration for valor. Glory belongs to the act of being constant to something greater than yourself, to a cause, to your principles, to the people on whom you rely and who rely on you in rerun."
- John McCain
Five reasons why John McCain will be our next president:
1. The Electoral Math: There will be plenty of strategems offered forth by pundits and prognosticators between now and November, and most-to-all of them are better educated than I am on the electoral college. (Perhaps if we're nice, Mr. JRR will chime in soon.) But here's how I see it:
Based on the 2000 and 2004 elections and my educated guesses, the following states are relatively safe for McCain: Alabama (9 electoral votes), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Arkansas (6), Florida (27), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Mississippi (6), Minnesota (10), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), Nevada (5), New Hampshire (4), New Mexico (5), North Carolina (15), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), West Virginia (5) and Wyoming (3). That's a total of 211.
Meanwhile, Obama can probably count on California (55), Colorado (9), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), D.C. (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Iowa (7), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), New York (31), Oregon (7), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3) and Washington (11). I'll also give Obama New Jersey (15) and Wisconsin (10) based on the last two elections, though I think that McCain will make strong plays in both states. That's a total of 216.
That leaves the swing states: Ohio (20), Pennsylvania (21), Michigan (17), Virginia (13), Missouri (11), Indiana (11) and Louisiana (9). Obama won so convincingly in Virginia that I'll nervously give him those votes. Indiana (where Obama lost the Democratic primary) has typically been a reliable Republican state, so I'll put that in McCain's column. Let's assume, for the sake of this argument, that Obama captures the 20 total electoral votes from Louisiana and Missouri, two nominally conservative states where his message ought to appeal to rural and middle-class citizens.
That brings the total to Obama 249 - McCain 222. To get to the magic number of 270, each candidate will need to woo voters in the post-industrial manufacturing centers like Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan.
Despite the endorsement of numerous labor unions, Obama has totally failed to connect with these people. And despite McCain's economic flakiness and his "eat your vegetables" defense of free trade, he still has a strong following there. These are people with strong core values of strength, security, experience and approachability. Which candidate does that sound like?
It's debatable whether a presidential candidate's running mate has any influence over the electoral map, but that whole question poses even more problems for Obama, to wit:
2. The Clinton Effect: It will be easier to shore up Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan if Hillary Clinton is on the ticket. It would also stem the revolt by feminists and the elderly, who seem to be pouting over Obama's nomination and could depress Democratic turnout in other swing states like New Jersey and Wisconsin. But to do so would invite both Clintons onstage, where they cast a long and dark shadow; not only would it dilute Obama's clarion call for "change," their combined stature would make him appear weak. And that's not even considering the substantial problems they might cause within the administration, if they ever got that far.
It's still an open question whether Clinton will truly deploy her considerable influence (with women, Latinos, the aged and infirm) in the election without a personal stake in it. In her un-concession speech last night, Clinton was clearly leveraging her power so that she can shape the debate on the issues about which she feels so strongly and genuinely. I'm not saying she doesn't want to "unite the party," whatever that means; I'm just saying that it's her No. 2 priority.
3. The Press Backlash: The media has been hot-and-cold with Obama, fawning over him one minute and pantsing him the next (and then criticizing itself for fawning over him, and then forgiving itself, and then criticizing Bill Clinton for criticizing the media's lack of criticism).
Lost in this echo chamber is the fact that while Obama has been great on the stump, he has not fared well in debates, he has not participated in made much use of town hall meetings and he generally seems either flustered or defensive whenever anyone asks him a direct question; dare I say, there is something downright Nixonian about him. This plays right into the hands of McCain, who has always been well-received by the media, can debate and town-hall in his sleep, and answers questions with grace and good humor -- even when he doesn't know the answers.
The media will rally around Obama through the historic Democratic convention, followed by the inevitable backlash that has been the pattern. The kleig lights that switch on in the fall will illuminate McCain's deft touch -- and Obama's struggles -- in these extemporaneous situations. And McCain will ultimately get the benefit of better media treatment, if for no other reason than the fact that he's more fun to cover.
4. The Hope Thing: It's not just about being funnier and friendlier. The great misperception of this campaign season has been the notion that Obama is the Candidate of Hope. In fact, Obama's platform includes some pretty ambitious policy ideas and ideals, and he has been upfront about the hard work and sacrifice that their implementation will require. It is McCain who more literally represents hope -- hope that if we simply stay the course on the war, the economy, education, health care -- everything will be all right. His campaign must be built on hope, since there's barely anything else there.
American voters love optimism -- more than five-part plans or intelligent policy analysis -- and McCain's campaign is fundamentally more optimistic because he doesn't think things are all that bad.
5. The American identity: To paraphrase something conservative commentator George F. Will recently said, America is fundamentally a center-right country and John McCain is the epitome of a center-right candidate. He's a war hero. He's a "maverick." He's a "straight talker." He's a vanquished man seeking redemption. He is everything America loves and fancies itself to be. And if it comes down to personality, which it so often does, McCain's the guy people are going to choose.
- John McCain
Five reasons why John McCain will be our next president:
1. The Electoral Math: There will be plenty of strategems offered forth by pundits and prognosticators between now and November, and most-to-all of them are better educated than I am on the electoral college. (Perhaps if we're nice, Mr. JRR will chime in soon.) But here's how I see it:
Based on the 2000 and 2004 elections and my educated guesses, the following states are relatively safe for McCain: Alabama (9 electoral votes), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Arkansas (6), Florida (27), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Mississippi (6), Minnesota (10), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), Nevada (5), New Hampshire (4), New Mexico (5), North Carolina (15), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), West Virginia (5) and Wyoming (3). That's a total of 211.
Meanwhile, Obama can probably count on California (55), Colorado (9), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), D.C. (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Iowa (7), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), New York (31), Oregon (7), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3) and Washington (11). I'll also give Obama New Jersey (15) and Wisconsin (10) based on the last two elections, though I think that McCain will make strong plays in both states. That's a total of 216.
That leaves the swing states: Ohio (20), Pennsylvania (21), Michigan (17), Virginia (13), Missouri (11), Indiana (11) and Louisiana (9). Obama won so convincingly in Virginia that I'll nervously give him those votes. Indiana (where Obama lost the Democratic primary) has typically been a reliable Republican state, so I'll put that in McCain's column. Let's assume, for the sake of this argument, that Obama captures the 20 total electoral votes from Louisiana and Missouri, two nominally conservative states where his message ought to appeal to rural and middle-class citizens.
That brings the total to Obama 249 - McCain 222. To get to the magic number of 270, each candidate will need to woo voters in the post-industrial manufacturing centers like Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan.
Despite the endorsement of numerous labor unions, Obama has totally failed to connect with these people. And despite McCain's economic flakiness and his "eat your vegetables" defense of free trade, he still has a strong following there. These are people with strong core values of strength, security, experience and approachability. Which candidate does that sound like?
It's debatable whether a presidential candidate's running mate has any influence over the electoral map, but that whole question poses even more problems for Obama, to wit:
2. The Clinton Effect: It will be easier to shore up Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan if Hillary Clinton is on the ticket. It would also stem the revolt by feminists and the elderly, who seem to be pouting over Obama's nomination and could depress Democratic turnout in other swing states like New Jersey and Wisconsin. But to do so would invite both Clintons onstage, where they cast a long and dark shadow; not only would it dilute Obama's clarion call for "change," their combined stature would make him appear weak. And that's not even considering the substantial problems they might cause within the administration, if they ever got that far.
It's still an open question whether Clinton will truly deploy her considerable influence (with women, Latinos, the aged and infirm) in the election without a personal stake in it. In her un-concession speech last night, Clinton was clearly leveraging her power so that she can shape the debate on the issues about which she feels so strongly and genuinely. I'm not saying she doesn't want to "unite the party," whatever that means; I'm just saying that it's her No. 2 priority.
3. The Press Backlash: The media has been hot-and-cold with Obama, fawning over him one minute and pantsing him the next (and then criticizing itself for fawning over him, and then forgiving itself, and then criticizing Bill Clinton for criticizing the media's lack of criticism).
Lost in this echo chamber is the fact that while Obama has been great on the stump, he has not fared well in debates, he has not participated in made much use of town hall meetings and he generally seems either flustered or defensive whenever anyone asks him a direct question; dare I say, there is something downright Nixonian about him. This plays right into the hands of McCain, who has always been well-received by the media, can debate and town-hall in his sleep, and answers questions with grace and good humor -- even when he doesn't know the answers.
The media will rally around Obama through the historic Democratic convention, followed by the inevitable backlash that has been the pattern. The kleig lights that switch on in the fall will illuminate McCain's deft touch -- and Obama's struggles -- in these extemporaneous situations. And McCain will ultimately get the benefit of better media treatment, if for no other reason than the fact that he's more fun to cover.
4. The Hope Thing: It's not just about being funnier and friendlier. The great misperception of this campaign season has been the notion that Obama is the Candidate of Hope. In fact, Obama's platform includes some pretty ambitious policy ideas and ideals, and he has been upfront about the hard work and sacrifice that their implementation will require. It is McCain who more literally represents hope -- hope that if we simply stay the course on the war, the economy, education, health care -- everything will be all right. His campaign must be built on hope, since there's barely anything else there.
American voters love optimism -- more than five-part plans or intelligent policy analysis -- and McCain's campaign is fundamentally more optimistic because he doesn't think things are all that bad.
5. The American identity: To paraphrase something conservative commentator George F. Will recently said, America is fundamentally a center-right country and John McCain is the epitome of a center-right candidate. He's a war hero. He's a "maverick." He's a "straight talker." He's a vanquished man seeking redemption. He is everything America loves and fancies itself to be. And if it comes down to personality, which it so often does, McCain's the guy people are going to choose.
JRR chimes in
Date: 2008-06-05 03:20 pm (UTC)Re: JRR chimes in
Date: 2008-06-05 03:43 pm (UTC)It will be a blowout.
Re: JRR chimes in
Date: 2008-06-05 09:09 pm (UTC)I gave McCain Nevada and New Mexico because of all the Arizona influence, New Hampshire because they feel a real ownership of his candidacy, and Minnesota because McCain is better organized there (and has the support of their popular governor). But you make a convincing counter-argument.
I still find it a little hard to believe that a person can win the electoral vote while losing Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan AND Florida.
Re: JRR chimes in
Date: 2008-06-06 01:44 pm (UTC)