stupidity in numbers
Nov. 9th, 2008 09:00 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
penfield"The intelligence of the creature known as a crowd, is the square root of the number of people in it."
- Terry Pratchett
The popular concept of "the wisdom of crowds" is predicated on the notion that the aggregation of knowledge in large groups results in better decisions than would typically be made by individuals. While this theory may hold true in a macro-statistical way, it seems clear that is has little relation to what happens when actual human beings get together.
I don't much like crowds. Call it a sense of graduated misanthropy: people are generally fine on a one-on-one basis. But as groups get larger, they also get louder, dumber and more difficult to control.
I would therefore modify Pratchett's Theorem above to read x = 1/y, where x = the intelligence of a crowd and y = the number of people in that crowd. (In groups of solely men, the formula is more like x=1/2y.
This is why I prefer to watch football games at home in high definition rather than in the stadium at the 50-yard line. I honestly don't see the appeal in standing in cold weather for three hours, half a mile from the action, surrounded by screaming drunks.
This is why I prefer to listen to a CD on my personal stereo rather than attend a club concert. Who wants to slog through a tedious opening act, abide the band's droning B-sides, then participate in the contrived encore process, all while trying not to be molested by the socially frustrated karaoke reject swaying next to you?
This is why I prefer take-out to eat-in, where I can eat in quiet comfort rather than be forced to rely on the conventions and whims of waters, chefs and other various stewards. Atmosphere? There's plenty of oxygen in my apartment, thank you.
So Inauguration Day 2009 is going to be a tricky proposition for me. I am eager to attend the event, view the parade, hear Obama's address and generally participate in the transcendantly glorious inspirational pan-racial patriotic American Change-eriffic Yes-We-Can-tacular Hopegasm. J., who is still upset that we didn't crash any of the local Obama campaign rallies, is determined that we are not going to miss this historical moment.
And yet, by all accounts, Inauguration Day in Washington D.C. is going to be total bedlam. The Washington Post reports that the mad dash for tickets and hotel rooms -- and even area Aerobeds -- has already begun in earnest. Were we so inclined, J. and I could probably rent out our apartment for the weekend for hundreds of dollars a night (and that's without my custom entertainment and turndown service).
Hence the conflict. I do not look forward to wading through a tumultuous sea of unwashed liberals, aggrieved conservatives and soulless centrists, all in 40-degree weather. I certainly am not interested in camping out the night before just for the privilege.
Yes, as crowds go, it will probably be a pretty savvy, tolerant and good-natured collection of Americans. It is a crowd, after all, that elected President-elect Obama. My biggest concern, I guess, is: if I join this crowd, in accordance with my formula, will I suddenly be too dumb to find my way out of it?
- Terry Pratchett
The popular concept of "the wisdom of crowds" is predicated on the notion that the aggregation of knowledge in large groups results in better decisions than would typically be made by individuals. While this theory may hold true in a macro-statistical way, it seems clear that is has little relation to what happens when actual human beings get together.
I don't much like crowds. Call it a sense of graduated misanthropy: people are generally fine on a one-on-one basis. But as groups get larger, they also get louder, dumber and more difficult to control.
I would therefore modify Pratchett's Theorem above to read x = 1/y, where x = the intelligence of a crowd and y = the number of people in that crowd. (In groups of solely men, the formula is more like x=1/2y.
This is why I prefer to watch football games at home in high definition rather than in the stadium at the 50-yard line. I honestly don't see the appeal in standing in cold weather for three hours, half a mile from the action, surrounded by screaming drunks.
This is why I prefer to listen to a CD on my personal stereo rather than attend a club concert. Who wants to slog through a tedious opening act, abide the band's droning B-sides, then participate in the contrived encore process, all while trying not to be molested by the socially frustrated karaoke reject swaying next to you?
This is why I prefer take-out to eat-in, where I can eat in quiet comfort rather than be forced to rely on the conventions and whims of waters, chefs and other various stewards. Atmosphere? There's plenty of oxygen in my apartment, thank you.
So Inauguration Day 2009 is going to be a tricky proposition for me. I am eager to attend the event, view the parade, hear Obama's address and generally participate in the transcendantly glorious inspirational pan-racial patriotic American Change-eriffic Yes-We-Can-tacular Hopegasm. J., who is still upset that we didn't crash any of the local Obama campaign rallies, is determined that we are not going to miss this historical moment.
And yet, by all accounts, Inauguration Day in Washington D.C. is going to be total bedlam. The Washington Post reports that the mad dash for tickets and hotel rooms -- and even area Aerobeds -- has already begun in earnest. Were we so inclined, J. and I could probably rent out our apartment for the weekend for hundreds of dollars a night (and that's without my custom entertainment and turndown service).
Hence the conflict. I do not look forward to wading through a tumultuous sea of unwashed liberals, aggrieved conservatives and soulless centrists, all in 40-degree weather. I certainly am not interested in camping out the night before just for the privilege.
Yes, as crowds go, it will probably be a pretty savvy, tolerant and good-natured collection of Americans. It is a crowd, after all, that elected President-elect Obama. My biggest concern, I guess, is: if I join this crowd, in accordance with my formula, will I suddenly be too dumb to find my way out of it?
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I am a rock, I am an island
Date: 2008-11-10 03:29 pm (UTC)Re: I am a rock, I am an island
Date: 2008-11-10 05:16 pm (UTC)My greatest concert experience was a free outdoor concert in 2000 in which 10,000 DC residents crowded a city block to watch CAKE perform. Performers often say "you've been a great crowd," but that's the only time I've ever actually believed it.
And as great as it was, I also remember well the five hours I had to spend waiting through preliminary crappy alt-punk bands before the main event.
Re: I am a rock, I am an island
Date: 2008-11-10 05:36 pm (UTC)Re: I am a rock, I am an island
Date: 2008-11-11 06:41 pm (UTC)Re: I am a rock, I am an island
Date: 2008-11-11 06:43 pm (UTC)Your goal is to fashion a real sentence and cogent idea out of my comment, using ONLY the words used therein. Go!
no subject
Date: 2008-11-14 01:47 am (UTC)I remember shaking Bobby Kennedy's hand in 1968 - it was one of the biggest thrills of my life - besides giving birth to you and your brother!
no subject
Date: 2008-11-14 02:30 pm (UTC)