Crazy at the Bat
May. 12th, 2008 04:32 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
penfield"Two things a man should never be angry at; what he can help, and what he cannot help."
- Thomas Fuller
When the fantasy is worse than reality, it's generally referred to as a nightmare. Such is my 2008 fantasy baseball season thus far; at the quarter-mark of the season I am wallowing one game out of last place. I've never performed so poorly so late in the season, particularly in baseball, a sport in which I always considered myself to be astute, if not literally skillful.
(As is typical, though, the reality against which I am comparing my fantasy performance is pretty good. I am happy, healthy, and the Oakland A's are in first place. I do not expect that latter fact to last long.)
I am giving myself until the All-Star break to turn things around. If I'm not comfortably in playoff position -- sixth place or better -- by then, I'll start selling off players for potential keepers.
To figure out where I need to make changes, first I need to figure out where I made mistakes. This means looking back at my draft. And, with benefit of high-definition hindsight, I have to concede that it was a near-total disaster. In almost every single round of the draft, the player I picked is performing the worst. Let's look at the first dozen rounds:
Round 1. Prince Fielder: He was projected to hit at least 40 home runs, the centerpiece of a strong Milwaukee Brewers offensive attack. But he is currently slugging .419 (.357 against righties!), putting him 94th in Major League Baseball, in the company of luminaries like Emil Brown and Kelly Johnson. Meanwhile, first baseman Derrek Lee, who was selected 77 picks later, is slugging .596 with ten homers.
2. Jimmy Rollins: My No. 2 pick was supposed to reliably fill a giant hole at shortstop and be a source of runs and stolen bases. As the result of a freaky ankle injury, he has started only ten games.
3. Victor Martinez: I've always had trouble filling the Catcher position. I thought I could just slot him in at catcher and not have to worry about the position for the rest of the year. Then he hurt himself in the first game and missed a week. Now he's back and hitting for batting average, but has zero home runs and is somehow slugging even less than Fielder (.404). That's six extra-base hits in 104 at-bats. Cubs catcher Geovany Soto, taken ten rounds later, is slugging .587.
4. C.C. Sabathia: My nominal ace stunk up the month of April, going 1-4 with a 7.76 ERA. What the hell was I thinking, taking him instead of Brandon Webb (8-0, 2.41 ERA)?
5. Travis Hafner: Batting .215. With a slugging percentage of .347. Watching him on television, it looks like he's swinging his bat through molasses. I probably could have picked a random name in on the draft board and gotten more production out of my utility spot.
6. Robinson Cano: .185 batting average, .311 slugging percentage. Statistically the worst everyday second-baseman in the major leagues. Have you noticed that we're in the sixth round and we haven't yet gotten to a single player who is even average at his position?
7. Corey Hart: One HR, four stolen bases in 36 games. Worse than J.D. Drew, Andre Ethier and Skip Schumaker, none of whom were even drafted.
8. Chris B. Young: It says something that I consider Young one of my few successes. Yes, he has nine home runs, but he's only batting .238 with a lousy three stolen bases -- and 45 strikeouts in 37 games.
9. Nick Swisher: I thought he'd hit 35 home runs in his new home ballpark. He has only three so far, and is batting .210 with a .310 slugging percentage (congratulations, Nick! You narrowly edge out Cano for worst slugger on the team).
10. Ryan Zimmerman: I want so badly to like Zimmerman, but he's hitting .240 with a .383 slugging percentage and has seven walks to 29 strikeouts on the year. And I get to watch him fail every night on TV.
11. Yovani Gallardo: This is more tragic than sad. He missed the first three weeks with a knee problem, came back to turn in three quality starts (without notching a win), then was lost for the year with a torn ACL in the other knee. Poof. There goes the only bridge from my quality starters to my scrubs.
12. Joba Chamberlain: (TRADED for Rich Harden): Harden is 1-0 with a 3.68 ERA and 20 strikeouts in 14 and two-thirds innings. But that's the thing -- 14 and two-thirds innings. He's only been able to start three games and looks like a candidate to have his arm fall off at any moment. At best, he is a crapshoot. (Chamberlain, meanwhile, has a 2.93 ERA, a .98 WHIP and will be in the Yankees rotation before long.)
Of my remaining draft choices, only four are still on the team: Joakim Soria (Round 14) has been a lights-out reliever, not yet allowing a run, although his team hasn't gotten him many save opportunities. Kerry Wood (Round 18) has held up as the Cubs closer, although he's a constant injury risk. Jonathan Broxton (Round 19) was a speculation on the health of 39-year old Dodgers closer Takashi Saito; so far Saito has been fit as a fiddle, making Broxton next in line to get cut. Zach Greinke, who was an afterthought in the 20th Round, has been one of the league's best starters.
I suppose I can take some credit for drafting Brandon Lyon in the 15th Round, as he has become a solid relief ace. But then I have to deduct that credit for dumping him after his early-season struggles, essentially in favor of Eric Gagne, who has since flamed out of his closer role. 20-year old Justin Upton, whom I plucked off the waiver wire during the second week of the season, has been my most consistent offensive producer.
This is a team for which the only quick fix is the return to form of some previously talented hitters and hopefully some lucky prospecting of available starting pitchers. If they stay entrenched in their early-season slumps, and if I continue to lag behind the waiver-wire curve, the nightmare is only going to continue.
- Thomas Fuller
When the fantasy is worse than reality, it's generally referred to as a nightmare. Such is my 2008 fantasy baseball season thus far; at the quarter-mark of the season I am wallowing one game out of last place. I've never performed so poorly so late in the season, particularly in baseball, a sport in which I always considered myself to be astute, if not literally skillful.
(As is typical, though, the reality against which I am comparing my fantasy performance is pretty good. I am happy, healthy, and the Oakland A's are in first place. I do not expect that latter fact to last long.)
I am giving myself until the All-Star break to turn things around. If I'm not comfortably in playoff position -- sixth place or better -- by then, I'll start selling off players for potential keepers.
To figure out where I need to make changes, first I need to figure out where I made mistakes. This means looking back at my draft. And, with benefit of high-definition hindsight, I have to concede that it was a near-total disaster. In almost every single round of the draft, the player I picked is performing the worst. Let's look at the first dozen rounds:
Round 1. Prince Fielder: He was projected to hit at least 40 home runs, the centerpiece of a strong Milwaukee Brewers offensive attack. But he is currently slugging .419 (.357 against righties!), putting him 94th in Major League Baseball, in the company of luminaries like Emil Brown and Kelly Johnson. Meanwhile, first baseman Derrek Lee, who was selected 77 picks later, is slugging .596 with ten homers.
2. Jimmy Rollins: My No. 2 pick was supposed to reliably fill a giant hole at shortstop and be a source of runs and stolen bases. As the result of a freaky ankle injury, he has started only ten games.
3. Victor Martinez: I've always had trouble filling the Catcher position. I thought I could just slot him in at catcher and not have to worry about the position for the rest of the year. Then he hurt himself in the first game and missed a week. Now he's back and hitting for batting average, but has zero home runs and is somehow slugging even less than Fielder (.404). That's six extra-base hits in 104 at-bats. Cubs catcher Geovany Soto, taken ten rounds later, is slugging .587.
4. C.C. Sabathia: My nominal ace stunk up the month of April, going 1-4 with a 7.76 ERA. What the hell was I thinking, taking him instead of Brandon Webb (8-0, 2.41 ERA)?
5. Travis Hafner: Batting .215. With a slugging percentage of .347. Watching him on television, it looks like he's swinging his bat through molasses. I probably could have picked a random name in on the draft board and gotten more production out of my utility spot.
6. Robinson Cano: .185 batting average, .311 slugging percentage. Statistically the worst everyday second-baseman in the major leagues. Have you noticed that we're in the sixth round and we haven't yet gotten to a single player who is even average at his position?
7. Corey Hart: One HR, four stolen bases in 36 games. Worse than J.D. Drew, Andre Ethier and Skip Schumaker, none of whom were even drafted.
8. Chris B. Young: It says something that I consider Young one of my few successes. Yes, he has nine home runs, but he's only batting .238 with a lousy three stolen bases -- and 45 strikeouts in 37 games.
9. Nick Swisher: I thought he'd hit 35 home runs in his new home ballpark. He has only three so far, and is batting .210 with a .310 slugging percentage (congratulations, Nick! You narrowly edge out Cano for worst slugger on the team).
10. Ryan Zimmerman: I want so badly to like Zimmerman, but he's hitting .240 with a .383 slugging percentage and has seven walks to 29 strikeouts on the year. And I get to watch him fail every night on TV.
11. Yovani Gallardo: This is more tragic than sad. He missed the first three weeks with a knee problem, came back to turn in three quality starts (without notching a win), then was lost for the year with a torn ACL in the other knee. Poof. There goes the only bridge from my quality starters to my scrubs.
12. Joba Chamberlain: (TRADED for Rich Harden): Harden is 1-0 with a 3.68 ERA and 20 strikeouts in 14 and two-thirds innings. But that's the thing -- 14 and two-thirds innings. He's only been able to start three games and looks like a candidate to have his arm fall off at any moment. At best, he is a crapshoot. (Chamberlain, meanwhile, has a 2.93 ERA, a .98 WHIP and will be in the Yankees rotation before long.)
Of my remaining draft choices, only four are still on the team: Joakim Soria (Round 14) has been a lights-out reliever, not yet allowing a run, although his team hasn't gotten him many save opportunities. Kerry Wood (Round 18) has held up as the Cubs closer, although he's a constant injury risk. Jonathan Broxton (Round 19) was a speculation on the health of 39-year old Dodgers closer Takashi Saito; so far Saito has been fit as a fiddle, making Broxton next in line to get cut. Zach Greinke, who was an afterthought in the 20th Round, has been one of the league's best starters.
I suppose I can take some credit for drafting Brandon Lyon in the 15th Round, as he has become a solid relief ace. But then I have to deduct that credit for dumping him after his early-season struggles, essentially in favor of Eric Gagne, who has since flamed out of his closer role. 20-year old Justin Upton, whom I plucked off the waiver wire during the second week of the season, has been my most consistent offensive producer.
This is a team for which the only quick fix is the return to form of some previously talented hitters and hopefully some lucky prospecting of available starting pitchers. If they stay entrenched in their early-season slumps, and if I continue to lag behind the waiver-wire curve, the nightmare is only going to continue.
