Ice Cold Draft
Mar. 20th, 2008 08:15 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
penfield"It is better to be bold than too circumspect, because fortune is of a sex which likes not a tardy wooer and repulses all who are not ardent."
- Niccolò Machiavelli (Italian diplomat, writer and dirty card player)
As I mentioned yesterday, my fantasy league had its draft last night. Below is a pick-by-pick rundown of the event, complete with my own armchair analysis.
[It may be useful to know that this is a "head-to-head," "5 x 5" league, in which each team plays a different team per week, competing to see who can lead in the most categories -- five pitching categories and five batting categories. It should also be noted, though I will not belabor the details, that this is a "keeper" league, in which teams are permitted to keep up to two of their players from the previous season. Because of some procedural problems that are exceedingly irrelevant, certain teams were forced to forfeit early picks.]
On with the show:
Round 1
1. Albert Pujols* (Team Alpha)
2. Johan Santana* (Team Beta)
3. Aaron Harang* (Team Gamma)
4. Ryan Howard* (Team Delta)
5. Justin Verlander* (Team Epsilon)
6. Jose Reyes* (Team Zeta)
7. David Wright (Team Eta)
8. Alex Rodriguez* (Team Theta)
9. Hanley Ramirez* (Team Iota)
10. Prince Fielder* (ENCHANTED PANTS)
(Asterisks indicate that the player was kept from the team's 2007 roster.)
MY PICK: Fielder was my one chosen keeper. He’s one of the few guys capable of hitting 50 home runs this season, and 1B is a more shallow position than you think. I can’t understand why Ryan Howard is universally ranked so much higher than Fielder; they’re the same exact player.
BEST PICK: Rodriguez, probably. Can’t get any better than the consensus No. 1 overall pick in the eighth slot.
WORST PICK: Harang. Justin Verlander was a big reach, but I think he’s going to have an excellent season -– I was hoping to take him in the fourth round. Harang surprises me every year, pitching for a crappy team in a tiny ballpark, so I’m probably wrong about him again. But even so, his average draft position (ADP) in Yahoo! leagues is 78. He would have been available at least three rounds later.
But wait!
Round 2
11. Jimmy Rollins (ENCHANTED PANTS)
12. Chase Utley* (Team Iota)
13. Matt Holliday (Team Theta)
14. Alfonso Soriano (Team Eta)
15. Jake Peavy* (Team Zeta)
16. [pick forfeited] (Team Epsilon)
17. Jonathan Papelbon* (Team Delta)
18. Carlos Lee* (Team Gamma)
19. Ryan Braun* (Team Beta)
20. Miguel Cabrera* (Team Alpha)
MY PICK: I had my choice of Rollins or Holliday, both consensus top-11 players, and I chose Rollins because of his speed and position scarcity. Holliday is as consistent as you get, but I already had a big power/RBI guy and by my next pick (No. 30) most of the speed guys were going to be gone.
BEST PICK: Accordingly, Holliday in the 13th spot was a steal. Utley (a keeper) at No. 12 is just as good, the result of an incredibly strong draft by Team Iota last year.
WORST PICK: Besides the forfeit, it is not considered smart drafting to take a closer like Papelbon in the first round. Pick No. 17 is a high price to pay for one category like saves.
Round 3
21. [pick forfeited] (Team Alpha)
22. Brandon Phillips (Team Beta)
23. David Ortiz (Team Gamma)
24. Carlos Beltran (Team Delta)
25. Vladimir Guerrero (Team Epsilon)
26. Ichiro Suzuki (Team Zeta)
27. Grady Sizemore (Team Eta)
28. Carl Crawford (Team Theta)
29. Mark Teixeira (Team Iota)
30. Victor Martinez (ENCHANTED PANTS)
MY PICK: It worked out well for me that Victor Martinez was due to come up around this slot, because I knew I wanted to shore up my catcher position early. I had to chose between Martinez and Russell Martin, and I went with the better power numbers and likelihood of more playing time.
BEST PICK: Lots of bargains in this round, mainly because of the forfeited picks, but you have to go with Sizemore. I was considering taking him with Pick No. 11, and if he had lasted three picks longer he would have thrown off my entire draft. Crawford at No. 28, with all his steals and contributions to other categories, is almost as much of a theft.
WORST PICK: Could be Martinez, if he’s entered his decline phase already. I also don’t care much for Brandon Phillips; I think his 2007 season was over his head and he was only my fourth-ranked second baseman.
Round 4
31. C.C. Sabathia (ENCHANTED PANTS)
32. Brandon Webb (Team Iota)
33. Erik Bedard (Team Theta)
34. Josh Beckett (Team Eta)
35. Russell Martin (Team Zeta)
36. Manny Ramirez (Team Epsilon)
37. Cole Hamels (Team Delta)
38. B.J. Upton (Team Gamma)
39. Magglio Ordonez (Team Beta)
40. Lance Berkman (Team Alpha)
MY PICK: I wanted an ace starter, and Sabathia was the third-ranked pitcher on my list behind Santana and Peavy. Yahoo! projects him to go in the mid-40’s so I had to reach a bit to get him here. This pick apparently set off a run on ace starters.
BEST PICK: Berkman at No. 40 is great value, but I like the pick of BJ Upton even better. Upton may struggle to keep his batting average up, but other than that he is going to be a 90s-era Vladimir Guererro clone.
WORST PICK: I like Hamels as much as the next guy, and a lot of projections seem to love him. But he is still very inconsistent, injury prone and pitches in a bandbox. I was hoping to get him at the end of Round 5.
Round 5
41. Curtis Granderson (Team Alpha)
42. J.J. Putz (Team Beta)
43. Troy Tulowitzki (Team Gamma)
44. Chone Figgins (Team Delta)
45. Dan Haren (Team Epsilon)
46. Justin Morneau (Team Zeta)
47. Derek Jeter (Team Eta)
48. Nick Markakis (Team Theta)
49. Aramis Ramirez (Team Iota)
50. Travis Hafner (ENCHANTED PANTS)
MY PICK: I desperately wanted Aramis Ramirez, but I feel very good about Hafner at No. 50. I think 2007 was simply a down year and I think he can provide David Ortiz-like numbers in 2008.
BEST PICK: Ramirez gets my vote as most underrated position player in baseball. He combines power and batting average, and (although useless in fantasy) even plays a great defensive 3B. All you have to worry about is his tendency to accumulate nagging injuries, but he’s still only 29 – young enough to play through it.
WORST PICK: No bad picks here, just a few spare doubts. I don’t think Granderson is going to repeat his 2007 season, but even so he’s a fair pick at No. 41. Markakis struggled without Miguel Tejada in the lineup last year, and Brian Roberts could be gone soon; I like him but I worry about unrealistic expectations. Haren, a fly-ball pitcher, in that Arizona ballpark scares me a little, but I was thinking about taking him with No. 51.
Round 6
51. Robinson Cano (ENCHANTED PANTS)
52. Alex Rios (Team Iota)
53. Eric Byrnes (Team Theta)
54. Brian Roberts (Team Eta)
55. Adam Dunn (Team Zeta)
56. Carlos Guillen (Team Epsilon)
57. Carlos Zambrano (Team Delta)
58. Joe Nathan (Team Gamma)
59. Adrian Gonzalez (Team Beta)
60. Bobby Abreu (Team Alpha)
MY PICK: I would have taken another ace starting pitcher if there had been any decent/uninjured ones left, but there weren’t, so I took a bat to boost my batting average. My brain tells me that Cano is a solid pick here. He’s the fastest-rising star in the Yankee lineup and I think there’s unrealized power there, too. But I also remember that he was lost until the all-star break last year, and I wonder if Howie Kendrick wouldn’t provide the same statistics several rounds later.
BEST PICK: Dunn. He may kill your batting average, or his new manager may totally mess with his head, but 40-homer potential is 40-homer potential and you don’t usually find that in Round 6.
WORST PICK: A bunch of mediocre outfielders were taken in this round, all with pretty much the same skill set. Rios, Byrnes and Abreu will each hit .290 with 15-20 home runs and 15-20 stolen bases. That’s fine, I just think it’s a little too safe considering that there are younger, more dynamic players still available.
Round 7
61. John Lackey (Team Alpha)
62. Francisco Rodriguez (Team Beta)
63. Hunter Pence (Team Gamma)
64. John Smoltz (Team Delta)
65. Chris Young (Team Epsilon)
66. Daisuke Matsuzaka (Team Zeta)
67. Garrett Atkins (Team Eta)
68. Carlos Pena (Team Theta)
69. Torii Hunter (Team Iota)
70. Corey Hart (ENCHANTED PANTS)
MY PICK: I don’t really like Corey Hart. He’s got a goofy name, he looks funny and I don’t see what’s so great about him. But Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projection system loves him, and so does Josh’s spreadsheet. If I don’t get 25 home runs and 25 stolen bases, I’m going to be upset.
BEST PICK: Nobody seems to believe in Carlos Pena. I don’t think he’ll hit 46 home runs or bat .290 again, but he’ll give Team Theta Teixeira-like numbers for half the price.
WORST PICK: Team Alpha was on auto-draft so you can’t really blame him for picking a starter who’s going to be out until mid-May. But most of the other picks here are entirely defensible.
Round 8
71. Chris Young (ENCHANTED PANTS)
72. Brian McCann (Team Iota)
73. Roy Oswalt (Team Theta)
74. Takashi Saito (Team Eta)
75. James Shields (Team Zeta)
76. Kenji Johjima (Team Epsilon)
77. Fausto Carmona (Team Delta)
78. Francisco Liriano (Team Gamma)
79. Chipper Jones (Team Beta)
80. Joe Mauer (Team Alpha)
MY PICK: This Chris Young is the outfielder for the Arizona Diamondbacks, not the pitcher for the Padres (who was drafted at No. 65). Like Hart, Young is a power/speed guy on the rise. I just have to hope that his BABIP regresses to the mean so he doesn’t hit .237 again. I strongly considered a number of guys here – I could have taken McCann (creating a value surplus of catchers, moving Martinez to the utility slot) or a closer (Saito or Mariano Rivera) or a quality starter (Oswalt, Scott Kazmir or Felix Hernandez). But Young was too big of a talent to pass up.
BEST PICK: Mauer at No. 80 is pretty good, considering that he is generally ranked ahead of McCann (with which I disagree) and Johjima (with which I strongly agree).
WORST PICK: I love Liriano – he’s a former Rochester Red Wing who led me to victory in my league two years ago. But he’s coming off Tommy John surgery, is now a year and a half from his last game action, and appears to have put on 50 lbs. His innings will be limited and by all accounts he is afraid to throw his devastating slider. That’s a lot of red flags.
Round 9
81. Ian Kinsler (Team Alpha)
82. Miguel Tejada (Team Beta)
83. Roy Halladay (Team Gamma)
84. Scott Kazmir (Team Delta)
85. Josh Hamilton (Team Epsilon)
86. Billy Wagner (Team Zeta)
87. Derrek Lee (Team Eta)
88. Michael Young (Team Theta)
89. Jose Valverde (Team Iota)
90. Nick Swisher (ENCHANTED PANTS)
MY PICK: Swisher was one of those guys I was determined to get. I think he’s good for 35 home runs in his new home park and he could even steal double-digit bases now that he’s away from Oakland’s station-to-station regime. His ADP is 110, so I probably reached for him when I could have had him in the next round, but I didn’t want to take any chances.
BEST PICK: Derrek Lee slid all the way to No. 87 (ADP: 47.5) because he doesn’t do the big things you expect first basemen to do, and because it’s unlikely he’ll ever hit 46 home runs again (like he did in ’05) or steal 21 bases again (like he did in ’04). But he can still hit .300 in the middle of what should be a pretty good Cubs offense. Great value this late.
WORST PICK: Taking Josh Hamilton here is really risky – he’s an exciting and talented player but he’s only had one season’s worth of success and even then he was injured for part of the time. I think he would have still been around in a few rounds.
Round 10
91. Ryan Zimmerman (ENCHANTED PANTS)
92. Felix Hernandez (Team Iota)
93. Dan Uggla (Team Theta)
94. Mariano Rivera (Team Eta)
95. Vernon Wells (Team Zeta)
96. Bobby Jenks (Team Epsilon)
97. Gary Sheffield (Team Delta)
98. Jason Bay (Team Gamma)
99. Brad Hawpe (Team Beta)
100. Rafael Furcal (Team Alpha)
MY PICK: Zimmerman was my target for 3B all along. I think he could be David Wright Lite, with a .285 average, 25 home runs, 90 runs, 100 RBI and 15 stolen bases – especially if the new Washington ballpark is friendlier to hitters than old RFK. There’s still some volatility in his game, so I was hoping to hedge this bet with a promising youngster (Alex Gordon) or an improving veteran (Edwin Encarnacion) later in the draft.
BEST PICK: I’m tempted to say Vernon Wells, since he’s generally projected much higher than this, but I actually think this is about what he’s worth. And Furcal is a pretty good pick at No. 100, if he gets back to his 2006 level (which I think he can). But my bet is that Hernandez ends up having the best season of anyone in this round.
WORST PICK: Maybe this is exactly where Brad Hawpe deserves to be, but I see a guy who had his peak year, can’t hit lefties, can’t hit on the road, can’t run and is older than you think he is. He’s the type of guy you pick up off the waiver wire and platoon with someone, not the type of guy you take in the ninth round.
Round 11
101. Francisco Cordero (Team Alpha)
102. Jorge Posada (Team Beta)
103. Tim Lincecum (Team Gamma)
104. Andruw Jones (Team Delta)
105. Todd Helton (Team Epsilon)
106. Howie Kendrick (Team Zeta)
107. Matt Kemp (Team Eta)
108. Rich Hill (Team Theta)
109. Jeff Francoeur (Team Iota)
110. Yovani Gallardo (ENCHANTED PANTS)
MY PICK: This is where my draft started falling apart. Under my initial plan, I would have had two solid starters by this point. But a combination of bad luck (Hamels, Haren flying off the board 15 picks early) and opportunity (Chris Young slipping to me at No. 71), Sabathia was the only arm in my stable. I really wanted Rich Hill in the 11th round, but Team Theta snapped him up early and I was forced to go with Gallardo, my next choice. I don’t believe strongly in Gallardo; he’s one of these guys who’s collected a lot of accolades but is still very young and coming off a minor injury.
BEST PICK: Francouer was another guy I was targeting, but my draft of Chris Young made him less valuable. I still think this is the season he puts it all together.
WORST PICK: I’m scared that it might be Gallardo. This was another round with a lot of value in it – in fact, it was chock-full of guys I wanted to take with Picks No. 110 and 111. The only guys I would have shied away from were Jones and Helton, each of whom are terribly deficient in at least two categories.
Round 12
111. Joba Chamberlain (ENCHANTED PANTS)
112. Huston Street (Team Iota)
113. Javier Vazquez (Team Theta)
114. Trevor Hoffman (Team Eta)
115. Jermaine Dye (Team Zeta)
116. Stephen Drew (Team Epsilon)
117. Edgar Renteria (Team Delta)
118. Edwin Encarnacion (Team Gamma)
119. Juan Pierre (Team Beta)
120. Kelvim Escobar (Team Alpha)
MY PICK: Every year I make a pick that is so stupid, I regret it the second it happens. Last year it was an ailing Randy Johnson in the 11th round, ahead of Verlander and Hamels. This year it’s Joba Chamberlain, again in the 11th round. Javier Vazquez or Brett Myers would have been a much better value; Matt Capps or Huston Street could have anchored my bullpen. But I went with the dizzying upside and deafening hype of Joba, who isn’t even starting the year in the rotation (like other upside-kings Chad Billingsley or Matt Cain).
BEST PICK: Vazquez, probably. Even though he’s a fly ball pitcher with a small home ballpark and lousy defense behind him, he’s a virtual lock for 12 wins and 180 strikeouts.
WORST PICK: Besides Joba, you mean? Stephen Drew is all upside at this point, and in any case the 12th round is not the place to be drafting backup shortstops – not with so much quality pitching still available.
Round 13
121. Brett Myers (Team Alpha)
122. Chad Billingsley (Team Beta)
123. Matt Capps (Team Gamma)
124. Pedro Martinez (Team Delta)
125. Chad Cordero (Team Epsilon)
126. Jason Isringhausen (Team Zeta)
127. Ben Sheets (Team Eta)
128. Manny Corpas (Team Theta)
129. Matt Cain (Team Iota)
130. Jeremy Bonderman (ENCHANTED PANTS)
MY PICK: I sort of righted myself here by getting Bonderman, who’s worth more than Pick No. 130 – assuming his elbow problems from the end of last year are gone.
BEST PICK: Sheets could be a steal at No. 127, if his injury problems cease. Manny Corpas, Colorado’s closer, is also a good value here – I’d rather have him than several of the closers picked ahead of him.
WORST PICK: I don’t know what to make of Pedro Martinez. He’ll give you 120 great innings this year. But it’s still just 120 innings. Is that worth a full year’s roster spot?
Round 14
131. Joakim Soria (ENCHANTED PANTS)
132. Tim Hudson (Team Iota)
133. Dustin McGowan (Team Theta)
134. Chien-Ming Wang (Team Eta)
135. Rafael Soriano (Team Zeta)
136. Jim Thome (Team Epsilon)
137. Adrian Beltre (Team Delta)
138. Geovany Soto (Team Gamma)
139. Brad Penny (Team Beta)
140. A.J. Burnett (Team Alpha)
MY PICK: Finally, after missing out on Capps (who was my No. 1 closer target) and Street, I start to build a rag-tag bullpen with Joakim Soria. I like him a lot, but can he be a big saves guy? Doubts linger.
BEST PICK: Nice picks, overall. Another one of those if-he’s-healthy guys, A.J. Burnett, could be this year’s Josh Beckett. I almost took him over Bonderman. And McGowan could be a star. I shied away from these guys in earlier rounds simply because they pitch in the AL East, and you can only face the Orioles so many times. PECOTA loves Soto; they project him as the fifth-best catcher in the majors.
WORST PICK: Thome is only eligible at the Utility position. There were other guys out there with more versatility who could provide the same kind of production – like Paul Konerko or James Loney.
Round 15
141. Brad Lidge (Team Alpha)
142. Adam Wainwright (Team Beta)
143. Rich Harden (Team Gamma)
144. Jeremy Accardo (Team Delta)
145. Kevin Gregg (Team Epsilon)
146. Ian Snell (Team Zeta)
147. Hideki Matsui (Team Eta)
148. Phil Hughes (Team Theta)
149. Delmon Young (Team Iota)
150. Brandon Lyon (ENCHANTED PANTS)
MY PICK: And this is where the confused part of my draft turns into unadulterated flailing. I wanted to take Wainwright or Snell with this pick, and was doubly frustrated when I saw Rich Harden come off the board in Round 15. (See WORST PICK, below.) So instead I decided to feast on closers. Lyon was a bit of a reach, but the draft was becoming totally unpredictable and he will close for the Diamondbacks, which ought to be a pretty good team.
BEST PICK: Wainwright or Snell could be two of the NL’s five best pitchers as early as this year, if their crummy teams give him any semblance of support.
WORST PICK: I desperately wanted Rich Harden as one of my last picks, as a low-risk flier. He’s destined to be injured – perhaps through the simple act of drafting him – but when he’s healthy he’s one of the five best pitchers in baseball. Still, the 15th round? Really? Now I’m pissed because I’m in the position of hoping he gets injured so Team Gamma learns his lesson.
Round 16
151. Todd Jones (ENCHANTED PANTS)
152. Shane Victorino (Team Iota)
153. Bengie Molina (Team Theta)
154. Joe Borowski (Team Eta)
155. Micah Owings (Team Zeta)
156. Kelly Johnson (Team Epsilon)
157. Jered Weaver (Team Delta)
158. James Loney (Team Gamma)
159. Scot Shields (Team Beta)
160. John Maine (Team Alpha)
MY PICK: As opposed to my pick of Lyon, who is a somewhat risky, high-upside proposition, Todd Jones is the opposite. I know what I’m getting from him: 30 saves, a 4.50 ERA and little else. His greatest strength is that he’s got no competition in the Tigers bullpen; all his best set-up men are injured.
BEST PICK: Shane Victorino at 152 is an enormous value. He’ll score 100 runs and steal 30 bases for the Phillies this year, all at half the price of Corey Hart. Fucking Corey Hart. Kelly Johnson is also a great sleeper pickup, even if this is just about when he’s supposed to be drafted.
WORST PICK: You might expect me to say Scot Shields – a middle reliever who struggled last year. But I happen to think K-Rod’s arm is going to come apart this season, and Shields will be next in line for saves. No, I’m even more bearish on Micah Owings, whom Yahoo! ranked somewhere in the 500s and is currently known for being a better hitter than a pitcher.
Round 17
161. Paul Konerko (Team Alpha)
162. Mike Lowell (Team Beta)
163. Ian Kennedy (Team Gamma)
164. Jacoby Ellsbury (Team Delta)
165. Tom Gorzelanny (Team Epsilon)
166. Alex Gordon (Team Zeta)
167. Placido Polanco (Team Eta)
168. Ryan Garko (Team Theta)
169. Brian Wilson (Team Iota)
170. Rickie Weeks (ENCHANTED PANTS)
MY PICK: At this point I needed another starter, but the remaining choices were entirely unappealing, so I took the best position player still around. (I would have chosen Gordon, if Team Zeta hadn’t nabbed him with No. 166.) Weeks has tremendous potential and could yet break out this year – early in my planning I was eyeing him as my starting second baseman.
BEST PICK: Konerko is a solid pickup at No. 161. He’s good for at least 30 home runs and 100 RBI this year.
WORST PICK: Ian Kennedy probably would have gone undrafted, but Team Gamma is apparently a Yankee fan.
Round 18
171. Kerry Wood (ENCHANTED PANTS)
172. Jeff Francis (Team Iota)
173. Orlando Cabrera (Team Theta)
174. Aaron Rowand (Team Eta)
175. Raul Ibanez (Team Zeta)
176. Kevin Youkilis (Team Epsilon)
177. Jarrod Saltalamacchia (Team Delta)
178. Pat Burrell (Team Gamma)
179. Jhonny Peralta (Team Beta)
180. Johnny Damon (Team Alpha)
MY PICK: Before the draft I had read that Kerry Wood was close to wrapping up the job as Cubs closer. In Round 18 I selected him. After the draft I read that he was out with back spasms today and the closer’s job is wide open again.
BEST PICK: Cabrera provides good value this late in the draft, especially as Team Theta’s counterpoint to Michael Young. I expect the White Sox offense to be pretty good this year, and Cabrera is consistently underrated as a hitter.
WORST PICK: Aaron Rowand is not really as good as he was in 2007, and as he plays in the anemic Giants lineup in AT&T park, he’s going to look even worse than he really is.
Round 19
181. J.J. Hardy (Team Alpha)
182. Jeff Kent (Team Beta)
183. Clay Buchholz (Team Gamma)
184. Mark Mulder (Team Delta)
185. Dontrelle Willis (Team Epsilon)
186. Ted Lilly (Team Zeta)
187. Oliver Perez (Team Eta)
188. Kevin Kouzmanoff (Team Theta)
189. Joe Blanton (Team Iota)
190. Jonathan Broxton (ENCHANTED PANTS)
MY PICK: Still no starters worth drafting. Broxton ought to be the best set-up guy in the league and should be next in line to fill in for 38-year old Takashi Saito.
BEST PICK: Kent is a nice insurance policy to have at 1B and 2B. Buchholz is a nice upside play in these late rounds, as long as Team Gamma doesn’t expect too much.
WORST PICK: I can’t fault guys for taking chances this late on question marks like Oliver Perez and Dontrelle Willis. But Mark Mulder hasn’t thrown a pitch in what seems like years, and he hasn’t been any good since July 2004. Wasted pick.
Round 20
191. Zack Greinke (ENCHANTED PANTS)
192. Jon Lester (Team Iota)
193. B.J. Ryan (Team Theta)
194. Ivan Rodriguez (Team Eta)
195. Ken Griffey Jr. (Team Zeta)
196. Carlos Marmol (Team Epsilon)
197. Kosuke Fukudome (Team Delta)
198. Rafael Betancourt (Team Gamma)
199. Willy Taveras (Team Beta)
200. Dustin Pedroia (Team Alpha)
MY PICK: Greinke was the only remaining starter I had my eye on. I didn’t think anyone else would draft him but I decided I might as well take him here just in case. I think KC is going to surprise some people, and Grienke has ace-quality stuff.
BEST PICK: BJ Ryan is a nice just-in-case selection. Willy Taveras provides good value as Colorado’s speedy leadoff hitter, as long as you can bench him when he’s playing on the road. Betancourt and Marmol are nice hedge bets considering their teams’ incumbent closers.
WORST PICK: I’m not a lover of Lester or Pedroia, since they’re really only likely to contribute in one, maybe two categories. But at this point, most of these draft picks are going to be waived eventually anyway.
Round 21
201. Josh Fields (Team Alpha)
202. Joey Votto (Team Beta)
203. Derek Lowe (Team Gamma)
204. Evan Longoria (Team Delta)
205. Colby Rasmus (Team Epsilon)
206. Heath Bell (Team Zeta)
207. Barry Zito (Team Eta)
208. Troy Glaus (Team Theta)
209. George Sherrill (Team Iota)
210. Lastings Milledge (ENCHANTED PANTS)
MY PICK: My secret sleeper, I think Lastings Milledge could be a right-handed Grady Sizemore and my backup OF.
BEST PICK: Sherill was just named the Orioles’ closer. Saves are saves, right? And Lowe could easily win 12 games for the Dodgers.
WORST PICK: Fields, Votto and Rasmus have all been sent down to the minors already, and Longoria is likely headed there as well. But there is no rational reason for drafting Barry Zito, unless we’ve adopted a new category for “salary.”
In the final calculation, I guess I'm happy with my draft. I'm very happy with my lineup. I'm less happy with my pitching staff, but that just means I'll have to be more vigilant in picking up young studs off the waiver wire.
(I just wanted to see if anyone was still reading this.)
Or maybe it means that I won't be competitive this year, that I can relax and not take it so seriously. That I can devote my free time to worthier pursuits like fine literature, physical wellness or relationships with my loved ones.
... Nah.
- Niccolò Machiavelli (Italian diplomat, writer and dirty card player)
As I mentioned yesterday, my fantasy league had its draft last night. Below is a pick-by-pick rundown of the event, complete with my own armchair analysis.
[It may be useful to know that this is a "head-to-head," "5 x 5" league, in which each team plays a different team per week, competing to see who can lead in the most categories -- five pitching categories and five batting categories. It should also be noted, though I will not belabor the details, that this is a "keeper" league, in which teams are permitted to keep up to two of their players from the previous season. Because of some procedural problems that are exceedingly irrelevant, certain teams were forced to forfeit early picks.]
On with the show:
Round 1
1. Albert Pujols* (Team Alpha)
2. Johan Santana* (Team Beta)
3. Aaron Harang* (Team Gamma)
4. Ryan Howard* (Team Delta)
5. Justin Verlander* (Team Epsilon)
6. Jose Reyes* (Team Zeta)
7. David Wright (Team Eta)
8. Alex Rodriguez* (Team Theta)
9. Hanley Ramirez* (Team Iota)
10. Prince Fielder* (ENCHANTED PANTS)
(Asterisks indicate that the player was kept from the team's 2007 roster.)
MY PICK: Fielder was my one chosen keeper. He’s one of the few guys capable of hitting 50 home runs this season, and 1B is a more shallow position than you think. I can’t understand why Ryan Howard is universally ranked so much higher than Fielder; they’re the same exact player.
BEST PICK: Rodriguez, probably. Can’t get any better than the consensus No. 1 overall pick in the eighth slot.
WORST PICK: Harang. Justin Verlander was a big reach, but I think he’s going to have an excellent season -– I was hoping to take him in the fourth round. Harang surprises me every year, pitching for a crappy team in a tiny ballpark, so I’m probably wrong about him again. But even so, his average draft position (ADP) in Yahoo! leagues is 78. He would have been available at least three rounds later.
But wait!
Round 2
11. Jimmy Rollins (ENCHANTED PANTS)
12. Chase Utley* (Team Iota)
13. Matt Holliday (Team Theta)
14. Alfonso Soriano (Team Eta)
15. Jake Peavy* (Team Zeta)
16. [pick forfeited] (Team Epsilon)
17. Jonathan Papelbon* (Team Delta)
18. Carlos Lee* (Team Gamma)
19. Ryan Braun* (Team Beta)
20. Miguel Cabrera* (Team Alpha)
MY PICK: I had my choice of Rollins or Holliday, both consensus top-11 players, and I chose Rollins because of his speed and position scarcity. Holliday is as consistent as you get, but I already had a big power/RBI guy and by my next pick (No. 30) most of the speed guys were going to be gone.
BEST PICK: Accordingly, Holliday in the 13th spot was a steal. Utley (a keeper) at No. 12 is just as good, the result of an incredibly strong draft by Team Iota last year.
WORST PICK: Besides the forfeit, it is not considered smart drafting to take a closer like Papelbon in the first round. Pick No. 17 is a high price to pay for one category like saves.
Round 3
21. [pick forfeited] (Team Alpha)
22. Brandon Phillips (Team Beta)
23. David Ortiz (Team Gamma)
24. Carlos Beltran (Team Delta)
25. Vladimir Guerrero (Team Epsilon)
26. Ichiro Suzuki (Team Zeta)
27. Grady Sizemore (Team Eta)
28. Carl Crawford (Team Theta)
29. Mark Teixeira (Team Iota)
30. Victor Martinez (ENCHANTED PANTS)
MY PICK: It worked out well for me that Victor Martinez was due to come up around this slot, because I knew I wanted to shore up my catcher position early. I had to chose between Martinez and Russell Martin, and I went with the better power numbers and likelihood of more playing time.
BEST PICK: Lots of bargains in this round, mainly because of the forfeited picks, but you have to go with Sizemore. I was considering taking him with Pick No. 11, and if he had lasted three picks longer he would have thrown off my entire draft. Crawford at No. 28, with all his steals and contributions to other categories, is almost as much of a theft.
WORST PICK: Could be Martinez, if he’s entered his decline phase already. I also don’t care much for Brandon Phillips; I think his 2007 season was over his head and he was only my fourth-ranked second baseman.
Round 4
31. C.C. Sabathia (ENCHANTED PANTS)
32. Brandon Webb (Team Iota)
33. Erik Bedard (Team Theta)
34. Josh Beckett (Team Eta)
35. Russell Martin (Team Zeta)
36. Manny Ramirez (Team Epsilon)
37. Cole Hamels (Team Delta)
38. B.J. Upton (Team Gamma)
39. Magglio Ordonez (Team Beta)
40. Lance Berkman (Team Alpha)
MY PICK: I wanted an ace starter, and Sabathia was the third-ranked pitcher on my list behind Santana and Peavy. Yahoo! projects him to go in the mid-40’s so I had to reach a bit to get him here. This pick apparently set off a run on ace starters.
BEST PICK: Berkman at No. 40 is great value, but I like the pick of BJ Upton even better. Upton may struggle to keep his batting average up, but other than that he is going to be a 90s-era Vladimir Guererro clone.
WORST PICK: I like Hamels as much as the next guy, and a lot of projections seem to love him. But he is still very inconsistent, injury prone and pitches in a bandbox. I was hoping to get him at the end of Round 5.
Round 5
41. Curtis Granderson (Team Alpha)
42. J.J. Putz (Team Beta)
43. Troy Tulowitzki (Team Gamma)
44. Chone Figgins (Team Delta)
45. Dan Haren (Team Epsilon)
46. Justin Morneau (Team Zeta)
47. Derek Jeter (Team Eta)
48. Nick Markakis (Team Theta)
49. Aramis Ramirez (Team Iota)
50. Travis Hafner (ENCHANTED PANTS)
MY PICK: I desperately wanted Aramis Ramirez, but I feel very good about Hafner at No. 50. I think 2007 was simply a down year and I think he can provide David Ortiz-like numbers in 2008.
BEST PICK: Ramirez gets my vote as most underrated position player in baseball. He combines power and batting average, and (although useless in fantasy) even plays a great defensive 3B. All you have to worry about is his tendency to accumulate nagging injuries, but he’s still only 29 – young enough to play through it.
WORST PICK: No bad picks here, just a few spare doubts. I don’t think Granderson is going to repeat his 2007 season, but even so he’s a fair pick at No. 41. Markakis struggled without Miguel Tejada in the lineup last year, and Brian Roberts could be gone soon; I like him but I worry about unrealistic expectations. Haren, a fly-ball pitcher, in that Arizona ballpark scares me a little, but I was thinking about taking him with No. 51.
Round 6
51. Robinson Cano (ENCHANTED PANTS)
52. Alex Rios (Team Iota)
53. Eric Byrnes (Team Theta)
54. Brian Roberts (Team Eta)
55. Adam Dunn (Team Zeta)
56. Carlos Guillen (Team Epsilon)
57. Carlos Zambrano (Team Delta)
58. Joe Nathan (Team Gamma)
59. Adrian Gonzalez (Team Beta)
60. Bobby Abreu (Team Alpha)
MY PICK: I would have taken another ace starting pitcher if there had been any decent/uninjured ones left, but there weren’t, so I took a bat to boost my batting average. My brain tells me that Cano is a solid pick here. He’s the fastest-rising star in the Yankee lineup and I think there’s unrealized power there, too. But I also remember that he was lost until the all-star break last year, and I wonder if Howie Kendrick wouldn’t provide the same statistics several rounds later.
BEST PICK: Dunn. He may kill your batting average, or his new manager may totally mess with his head, but 40-homer potential is 40-homer potential and you don’t usually find that in Round 6.
WORST PICK: A bunch of mediocre outfielders were taken in this round, all with pretty much the same skill set. Rios, Byrnes and Abreu will each hit .290 with 15-20 home runs and 15-20 stolen bases. That’s fine, I just think it’s a little too safe considering that there are younger, more dynamic players still available.
Round 7
61. John Lackey (Team Alpha)
62. Francisco Rodriguez (Team Beta)
63. Hunter Pence (Team Gamma)
64. John Smoltz (Team Delta)
65. Chris Young (Team Epsilon)
66. Daisuke Matsuzaka (Team Zeta)
67. Garrett Atkins (Team Eta)
68. Carlos Pena (Team Theta)
69. Torii Hunter (Team Iota)
70. Corey Hart (ENCHANTED PANTS)
MY PICK: I don’t really like Corey Hart. He’s got a goofy name, he looks funny and I don’t see what’s so great about him. But Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projection system loves him, and so does Josh’s spreadsheet. If I don’t get 25 home runs and 25 stolen bases, I’m going to be upset.
BEST PICK: Nobody seems to believe in Carlos Pena. I don’t think he’ll hit 46 home runs or bat .290 again, but he’ll give Team Theta Teixeira-like numbers for half the price.
WORST PICK: Team Alpha was on auto-draft so you can’t really blame him for picking a starter who’s going to be out until mid-May. But most of the other picks here are entirely defensible.
Round 8
71. Chris Young (ENCHANTED PANTS)
72. Brian McCann (Team Iota)
73. Roy Oswalt (Team Theta)
74. Takashi Saito (Team Eta)
75. James Shields (Team Zeta)
76. Kenji Johjima (Team Epsilon)
77. Fausto Carmona (Team Delta)
78. Francisco Liriano (Team Gamma)
79. Chipper Jones (Team Beta)
80. Joe Mauer (Team Alpha)
MY PICK: This Chris Young is the outfielder for the Arizona Diamondbacks, not the pitcher for the Padres (who was drafted at No. 65). Like Hart, Young is a power/speed guy on the rise. I just have to hope that his BABIP regresses to the mean so he doesn’t hit .237 again. I strongly considered a number of guys here – I could have taken McCann (creating a value surplus of catchers, moving Martinez to the utility slot) or a closer (Saito or Mariano Rivera) or a quality starter (Oswalt, Scott Kazmir or Felix Hernandez). But Young was too big of a talent to pass up.
BEST PICK: Mauer at No. 80 is pretty good, considering that he is generally ranked ahead of McCann (with which I disagree) and Johjima (with which I strongly agree).
WORST PICK: I love Liriano – he’s a former Rochester Red Wing who led me to victory in my league two years ago. But he’s coming off Tommy John surgery, is now a year and a half from his last game action, and appears to have put on 50 lbs. His innings will be limited and by all accounts he is afraid to throw his devastating slider. That’s a lot of red flags.
Round 9
81. Ian Kinsler (Team Alpha)
82. Miguel Tejada (Team Beta)
83. Roy Halladay (Team Gamma)
84. Scott Kazmir (Team Delta)
85. Josh Hamilton (Team Epsilon)
86. Billy Wagner (Team Zeta)
87. Derrek Lee (Team Eta)
88. Michael Young (Team Theta)
89. Jose Valverde (Team Iota)
90. Nick Swisher (ENCHANTED PANTS)
MY PICK: Swisher was one of those guys I was determined to get. I think he’s good for 35 home runs in his new home park and he could even steal double-digit bases now that he’s away from Oakland’s station-to-station regime. His ADP is 110, so I probably reached for him when I could have had him in the next round, but I didn’t want to take any chances.
BEST PICK: Derrek Lee slid all the way to No. 87 (ADP: 47.5) because he doesn’t do the big things you expect first basemen to do, and because it’s unlikely he’ll ever hit 46 home runs again (like he did in ’05) or steal 21 bases again (like he did in ’04). But he can still hit .300 in the middle of what should be a pretty good Cubs offense. Great value this late.
WORST PICK: Taking Josh Hamilton here is really risky – he’s an exciting and talented player but he’s only had one season’s worth of success and even then he was injured for part of the time. I think he would have still been around in a few rounds.
Round 10
91. Ryan Zimmerman (ENCHANTED PANTS)
92. Felix Hernandez (Team Iota)
93. Dan Uggla (Team Theta)
94. Mariano Rivera (Team Eta)
95. Vernon Wells (Team Zeta)
96. Bobby Jenks (Team Epsilon)
97. Gary Sheffield (Team Delta)
98. Jason Bay (Team Gamma)
99. Brad Hawpe (Team Beta)
100. Rafael Furcal (Team Alpha)
MY PICK: Zimmerman was my target for 3B all along. I think he could be David Wright Lite, with a .285 average, 25 home runs, 90 runs, 100 RBI and 15 stolen bases – especially if the new Washington ballpark is friendlier to hitters than old RFK. There’s still some volatility in his game, so I was hoping to hedge this bet with a promising youngster (Alex Gordon) or an improving veteran (Edwin Encarnacion) later in the draft.
BEST PICK: I’m tempted to say Vernon Wells, since he’s generally projected much higher than this, but I actually think this is about what he’s worth. And Furcal is a pretty good pick at No. 100, if he gets back to his 2006 level (which I think he can). But my bet is that Hernandez ends up having the best season of anyone in this round.
WORST PICK: Maybe this is exactly where Brad Hawpe deserves to be, but I see a guy who had his peak year, can’t hit lefties, can’t hit on the road, can’t run and is older than you think he is. He’s the type of guy you pick up off the waiver wire and platoon with someone, not the type of guy you take in the ninth round.
Round 11
101. Francisco Cordero (Team Alpha)
102. Jorge Posada (Team Beta)
103. Tim Lincecum (Team Gamma)
104. Andruw Jones (Team Delta)
105. Todd Helton (Team Epsilon)
106. Howie Kendrick (Team Zeta)
107. Matt Kemp (Team Eta)
108. Rich Hill (Team Theta)
109. Jeff Francoeur (Team Iota)
110. Yovani Gallardo (ENCHANTED PANTS)
MY PICK: This is where my draft started falling apart. Under my initial plan, I would have had two solid starters by this point. But a combination of bad luck (Hamels, Haren flying off the board 15 picks early) and opportunity (Chris Young slipping to me at No. 71), Sabathia was the only arm in my stable. I really wanted Rich Hill in the 11th round, but Team Theta snapped him up early and I was forced to go with Gallardo, my next choice. I don’t believe strongly in Gallardo; he’s one of these guys who’s collected a lot of accolades but is still very young and coming off a minor injury.
BEST PICK: Francouer was another guy I was targeting, but my draft of Chris Young made him less valuable. I still think this is the season he puts it all together.
WORST PICK: I’m scared that it might be Gallardo. This was another round with a lot of value in it – in fact, it was chock-full of guys I wanted to take with Picks No. 110 and 111. The only guys I would have shied away from were Jones and Helton, each of whom are terribly deficient in at least two categories.
Round 12
111. Joba Chamberlain (ENCHANTED PANTS)
112. Huston Street (Team Iota)
113. Javier Vazquez (Team Theta)
114. Trevor Hoffman (Team Eta)
115. Jermaine Dye (Team Zeta)
116. Stephen Drew (Team Epsilon)
117. Edgar Renteria (Team Delta)
118. Edwin Encarnacion (Team Gamma)
119. Juan Pierre (Team Beta)
120. Kelvim Escobar (Team Alpha)
MY PICK: Every year I make a pick that is so stupid, I regret it the second it happens. Last year it was an ailing Randy Johnson in the 11th round, ahead of Verlander and Hamels. This year it’s Joba Chamberlain, again in the 11th round. Javier Vazquez or Brett Myers would have been a much better value; Matt Capps or Huston Street could have anchored my bullpen. But I went with the dizzying upside and deafening hype of Joba, who isn’t even starting the year in the rotation (like other upside-kings Chad Billingsley or Matt Cain).
BEST PICK: Vazquez, probably. Even though he’s a fly ball pitcher with a small home ballpark and lousy defense behind him, he’s a virtual lock for 12 wins and 180 strikeouts.
WORST PICK: Besides Joba, you mean? Stephen Drew is all upside at this point, and in any case the 12th round is not the place to be drafting backup shortstops – not with so much quality pitching still available.
Round 13
121. Brett Myers (Team Alpha)
122. Chad Billingsley (Team Beta)
123. Matt Capps (Team Gamma)
124. Pedro Martinez (Team Delta)
125. Chad Cordero (Team Epsilon)
126. Jason Isringhausen (Team Zeta)
127. Ben Sheets (Team Eta)
128. Manny Corpas (Team Theta)
129. Matt Cain (Team Iota)
130. Jeremy Bonderman (ENCHANTED PANTS)
MY PICK: I sort of righted myself here by getting Bonderman, who’s worth more than Pick No. 130 – assuming his elbow problems from the end of last year are gone.
BEST PICK: Sheets could be a steal at No. 127, if his injury problems cease. Manny Corpas, Colorado’s closer, is also a good value here – I’d rather have him than several of the closers picked ahead of him.
WORST PICK: I don’t know what to make of Pedro Martinez. He’ll give you 120 great innings this year. But it’s still just 120 innings. Is that worth a full year’s roster spot?
Round 14
131. Joakim Soria (ENCHANTED PANTS)
132. Tim Hudson (Team Iota)
133. Dustin McGowan (Team Theta)
134. Chien-Ming Wang (Team Eta)
135. Rafael Soriano (Team Zeta)
136. Jim Thome (Team Epsilon)
137. Adrian Beltre (Team Delta)
138. Geovany Soto (Team Gamma)
139. Brad Penny (Team Beta)
140. A.J. Burnett (Team Alpha)
MY PICK: Finally, after missing out on Capps (who was my No. 1 closer target) and Street, I start to build a rag-tag bullpen with Joakim Soria. I like him a lot, but can he be a big saves guy? Doubts linger.
BEST PICK: Nice picks, overall. Another one of those if-he’s-healthy guys, A.J. Burnett, could be this year’s Josh Beckett. I almost took him over Bonderman. And McGowan could be a star. I shied away from these guys in earlier rounds simply because they pitch in the AL East, and you can only face the Orioles so many times. PECOTA loves Soto; they project him as the fifth-best catcher in the majors.
WORST PICK: Thome is only eligible at the Utility position. There were other guys out there with more versatility who could provide the same kind of production – like Paul Konerko or James Loney.
Round 15
141. Brad Lidge (Team Alpha)
142. Adam Wainwright (Team Beta)
143. Rich Harden (Team Gamma)
144. Jeremy Accardo (Team Delta)
145. Kevin Gregg (Team Epsilon)
146. Ian Snell (Team Zeta)
147. Hideki Matsui (Team Eta)
148. Phil Hughes (Team Theta)
149. Delmon Young (Team Iota)
150. Brandon Lyon (ENCHANTED PANTS)
MY PICK: And this is where the confused part of my draft turns into unadulterated flailing. I wanted to take Wainwright or Snell with this pick, and was doubly frustrated when I saw Rich Harden come off the board in Round 15. (See WORST PICK, below.) So instead I decided to feast on closers. Lyon was a bit of a reach, but the draft was becoming totally unpredictable and he will close for the Diamondbacks, which ought to be a pretty good team.
BEST PICK: Wainwright or Snell could be two of the NL’s five best pitchers as early as this year, if their crummy teams give him any semblance of support.
WORST PICK: I desperately wanted Rich Harden as one of my last picks, as a low-risk flier. He’s destined to be injured – perhaps through the simple act of drafting him – but when he’s healthy he’s one of the five best pitchers in baseball. Still, the 15th round? Really? Now I’m pissed because I’m in the position of hoping he gets injured so Team Gamma learns his lesson.
Round 16
151. Todd Jones (ENCHANTED PANTS)
152. Shane Victorino (Team Iota)
153. Bengie Molina (Team Theta)
154. Joe Borowski (Team Eta)
155. Micah Owings (Team Zeta)
156. Kelly Johnson (Team Epsilon)
157. Jered Weaver (Team Delta)
158. James Loney (Team Gamma)
159. Scot Shields (Team Beta)
160. John Maine (Team Alpha)
MY PICK: As opposed to my pick of Lyon, who is a somewhat risky, high-upside proposition, Todd Jones is the opposite. I know what I’m getting from him: 30 saves, a 4.50 ERA and little else. His greatest strength is that he’s got no competition in the Tigers bullpen; all his best set-up men are injured.
BEST PICK: Shane Victorino at 152 is an enormous value. He’ll score 100 runs and steal 30 bases for the Phillies this year, all at half the price of Corey Hart. Fucking Corey Hart. Kelly Johnson is also a great sleeper pickup, even if this is just about when he’s supposed to be drafted.
WORST PICK: You might expect me to say Scot Shields – a middle reliever who struggled last year. But I happen to think K-Rod’s arm is going to come apart this season, and Shields will be next in line for saves. No, I’m even more bearish on Micah Owings, whom Yahoo! ranked somewhere in the 500s and is currently known for being a better hitter than a pitcher.
Round 17
161. Paul Konerko (Team Alpha)
162. Mike Lowell (Team Beta)
163. Ian Kennedy (Team Gamma)
164. Jacoby Ellsbury (Team Delta)
165. Tom Gorzelanny (Team Epsilon)
166. Alex Gordon (Team Zeta)
167. Placido Polanco (Team Eta)
168. Ryan Garko (Team Theta)
169. Brian Wilson (Team Iota)
170. Rickie Weeks (ENCHANTED PANTS)
MY PICK: At this point I needed another starter, but the remaining choices were entirely unappealing, so I took the best position player still around. (I would have chosen Gordon, if Team Zeta hadn’t nabbed him with No. 166.) Weeks has tremendous potential and could yet break out this year – early in my planning I was eyeing him as my starting second baseman.
BEST PICK: Konerko is a solid pickup at No. 161. He’s good for at least 30 home runs and 100 RBI this year.
WORST PICK: Ian Kennedy probably would have gone undrafted, but Team Gamma is apparently a Yankee fan.
Round 18
171. Kerry Wood (ENCHANTED PANTS)
172. Jeff Francis (Team Iota)
173. Orlando Cabrera (Team Theta)
174. Aaron Rowand (Team Eta)
175. Raul Ibanez (Team Zeta)
176. Kevin Youkilis (Team Epsilon)
177. Jarrod Saltalamacchia (Team Delta)
178. Pat Burrell (Team Gamma)
179. Jhonny Peralta (Team Beta)
180. Johnny Damon (Team Alpha)
MY PICK: Before the draft I had read that Kerry Wood was close to wrapping up the job as Cubs closer. In Round 18 I selected him. After the draft I read that he was out with back spasms today and the closer’s job is wide open again.
BEST PICK: Cabrera provides good value this late in the draft, especially as Team Theta’s counterpoint to Michael Young. I expect the White Sox offense to be pretty good this year, and Cabrera is consistently underrated as a hitter.
WORST PICK: Aaron Rowand is not really as good as he was in 2007, and as he plays in the anemic Giants lineup in AT&T park, he’s going to look even worse than he really is.
Round 19
181. J.J. Hardy (Team Alpha)
182. Jeff Kent (Team Beta)
183. Clay Buchholz (Team Gamma)
184. Mark Mulder (Team Delta)
185. Dontrelle Willis (Team Epsilon)
186. Ted Lilly (Team Zeta)
187. Oliver Perez (Team Eta)
188. Kevin Kouzmanoff (Team Theta)
189. Joe Blanton (Team Iota)
190. Jonathan Broxton (ENCHANTED PANTS)
MY PICK: Still no starters worth drafting. Broxton ought to be the best set-up guy in the league and should be next in line to fill in for 38-year old Takashi Saito.
BEST PICK: Kent is a nice insurance policy to have at 1B and 2B. Buchholz is a nice upside play in these late rounds, as long as Team Gamma doesn’t expect too much.
WORST PICK: I can’t fault guys for taking chances this late on question marks like Oliver Perez and Dontrelle Willis. But Mark Mulder hasn’t thrown a pitch in what seems like years, and he hasn’t been any good since July 2004. Wasted pick.
Round 20
191. Zack Greinke (ENCHANTED PANTS)
192. Jon Lester (Team Iota)
193. B.J. Ryan (Team Theta)
194. Ivan Rodriguez (Team Eta)
195. Ken Griffey Jr. (Team Zeta)
196. Carlos Marmol (Team Epsilon)
197. Kosuke Fukudome (Team Delta)
198. Rafael Betancourt (Team Gamma)
199. Willy Taveras (Team Beta)
200. Dustin Pedroia (Team Alpha)
MY PICK: Greinke was the only remaining starter I had my eye on. I didn’t think anyone else would draft him but I decided I might as well take him here just in case. I think KC is going to surprise some people, and Grienke has ace-quality stuff.
BEST PICK: BJ Ryan is a nice just-in-case selection. Willy Taveras provides good value as Colorado’s speedy leadoff hitter, as long as you can bench him when he’s playing on the road. Betancourt and Marmol are nice hedge bets considering their teams’ incumbent closers.
WORST PICK: I’m not a lover of Lester or Pedroia, since they’re really only likely to contribute in one, maybe two categories. But at this point, most of these draft picks are going to be waived eventually anyway.
Round 21
201. Josh Fields (Team Alpha)
202. Joey Votto (Team Beta)
203. Derek Lowe (Team Gamma)
204. Evan Longoria (Team Delta)
205. Colby Rasmus (Team Epsilon)
206. Heath Bell (Team Zeta)
207. Barry Zito (Team Eta)
208. Troy Glaus (Team Theta)
209. George Sherrill (Team Iota)
210. Lastings Milledge (ENCHANTED PANTS)
MY PICK: My secret sleeper, I think Lastings Milledge could be a right-handed Grady Sizemore and my backup OF.
BEST PICK: Sherill was just named the Orioles’ closer. Saves are saves, right? And Lowe could easily win 12 games for the Dodgers.
WORST PICK: Fields, Votto and Rasmus have all been sent down to the minors already, and Longoria is likely headed there as well. But there is no rational reason for drafting Barry Zito, unless we’ve adopted a new category for “salary.”
In the final calculation, I guess I'm happy with my draft. I'm very happy with my lineup. I'm less happy with my pitching staff, but that just means I'll have to be more vigilant in picking up young studs off the waiver wire.
(I just wanted to see if anyone was still reading this.)
Or maybe it means that I won't be competitive this year, that I can relax and not take it so seriously. That I can devote my free time to worthier pursuits like fine literature, physical wellness or relationships with my loved ones.
... Nah.
