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penfield"He doesn't know the meaning of the word fear, but then again, he doesn't know the meaning of most words."
- Bobby Bowden
In the past, when I've tried to do NFL season predictions with projected win totals, I've always self-criticized that the results are inherently flawed because the permutations were not necessarily possible given the prescribed schedule. So this year, I actually printed out the NFL schedule and simulated each game in my head, then tallied up the victories for each team.
What I've gained in legitimacy I've lost in sanity. If you want to experience the very definition of a pointless exercise, try guessing who's going to win the November 23 matchup between the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs. It's surely impossible. And yet I actually crossed out "Kansas City" and circled "Buffalo" upon further consideration. At the end of the "season," I actually had to look up the NFL rules to determine the playoff tiebreakers.
That's what I do just for you, fair readers and sports fans -- supply you with cause for my mockery and derision. You may commence at any time.
NFC EAST
Philadelphia 12-4
Ended up much better than I expected.
Dallas 11-5 [WILD CARD]
Defense is underrated, I think. This record presumes no pouting from T.O.
NY Giants 8-8
The Super Bowl is fresh in our minds, but they played erratically last year and the team has only gotten worse.
Washington 8-8
I may be docking them a win or two because I hate them so much. They have the talent for ten wins, but I don't think they'll get there.
NFC NORTH
Green Bay 11-5
I guess I believe in Aaron Rodgers. I know I belive in the defense.
Minnesota 9-7
A trendy pick this year, but Tarvaris Jackson: playoff quarterback? I don't think so.
Chicago 5-11
More quarterback problems. With his luck, this will be the one year that Mike Brown stays healthy.
Detroit 3-13
Matt Millen might want to update his resume.
NFC SOUTH
Carolina 12-4
Someone's got to win this division, I guess. But I didn't think it would be them, by this much.
Tampa Bay 10-6 [WILD CARD]
Maybe the defense still has one good year left. This could just as easily be 6-10.
New Orleans 7-9
The good guys can't stay healthy and the healthy guys aren't very good.
Atlanta 5-11
Young quarterback-running back combinations struggle, but they'll show some promise.
NFC WEST
St. Louis 10-6
Marc Bulger could be comeback player of the year, if Steven Jackson doesn't win it first.
Arizona 6-10
Wow, does this division stink.
Seattle 5-11
I expected them to be a little better than this. They'll probably win most of their home games, anyway.
San Francisco 1-15
Dibs on Michael Crabtree!
AFC EAST
New England 12-4
If Tom Brady plays fewer than a dozen games, all bets are off.
NY Jets 11-5 [WILD CARD]
Really? I must be giving Favre too much credit.
Buffalo 8-8
They'll play just well enough down the stretch that they'll really disappoint people in 2009.
Miami 7-9
The Chad Pennington Project sounds like a better name for a band than a game plan.
AFC NORTH
Pittsburgh 11-5
O-line is the key. It's anyone's guess how it'll work this year.
Cleveland 10-6
Will make a late-season push to squeak into the playoffs (via tiebreaker!). Could it be Brady Quinn's magic?
Cincinnati 4-12
I thought they'd do better, but not by much. Coach Marvin Lewis has officially lost control of his team. It belongs to karma now.
Baltimore 3-13
Still a world-class defense, but they can't play all 60 minutes.
AFC SOUTH
Indianapolis 11-5
I actually expect them to struggle this year; 11-5 may be a reach. Missing the playoffs is a distinct possibility.
Houston 10-6 [WILD CARD]
Also squeaks into the playoffs via tiebreaker. Steve Slaton is my pick for offensive rookie of the year.
Tennessee 10-6
Edged out of the playoffs with losses in tight games. Probably overachievers on my sheet.
Jacksonville 7-9
Damn, this is a tough division. The record looks like a lowball, but there's no way David Garrard can keep up his pace from last year.
AFC WEST
San Diego 11-5
Still the class of the division, but not very explosive unless Phillip Rivers really takes the Leap. Look for an early exit in the playoffs.
Denver 9-7
The hopes of Broncos fans -- and my fantasy team -- rely on Jay Cutler. Boom or bust time.
Oakland 5-11
I've come to the conclusion that Oakland is never going to get any better until Al Davis dies. Sorry, Al.
Kansas City
Quick: name their quarterback! Can't do it, can you? Tony Gonzalez will be asking for his release by week six.
- Bobby Bowden
In the past, when I've tried to do NFL season predictions with projected win totals, I've always self-criticized that the results are inherently flawed because the permutations were not necessarily possible given the prescribed schedule. So this year, I actually printed out the NFL schedule and simulated each game in my head, then tallied up the victories for each team.
What I've gained in legitimacy I've lost in sanity. If you want to experience the very definition of a pointless exercise, try guessing who's going to win the November 23 matchup between the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs. It's surely impossible. And yet I actually crossed out "Kansas City" and circled "Buffalo" upon further consideration. At the end of the "season," I actually had to look up the NFL rules to determine the playoff tiebreakers.
That's what I do just for you, fair readers and sports fans -- supply you with cause for my mockery and derision. You may commence at any time.
NFC EAST
Philadelphia 12-4
Ended up much better than I expected.
Dallas 11-5 [WILD CARD]
Defense is underrated, I think. This record presumes no pouting from T.O.
NY Giants 8-8
The Super Bowl is fresh in our minds, but they played erratically last year and the team has only gotten worse.
Washington 8-8
I may be docking them a win or two because I hate them so much. They have the talent for ten wins, but I don't think they'll get there.
NFC NORTH
Green Bay 11-5
I guess I believe in Aaron Rodgers. I know I belive in the defense.
Minnesota 9-7
A trendy pick this year, but Tarvaris Jackson: playoff quarterback? I don't think so.
Chicago 5-11
More quarterback problems. With his luck, this will be the one year that Mike Brown stays healthy.
Detroit 3-13
Matt Millen might want to update his resume.
NFC SOUTH
Carolina 12-4
Someone's got to win this division, I guess. But I didn't think it would be them, by this much.
Tampa Bay 10-6 [WILD CARD]
Maybe the defense still has one good year left. This could just as easily be 6-10.
New Orleans 7-9
The good guys can't stay healthy and the healthy guys aren't very good.
Atlanta 5-11
Young quarterback-running back combinations struggle, but they'll show some promise.
NFC WEST
St. Louis 10-6
Marc Bulger could be comeback player of the year, if Steven Jackson doesn't win it first.
Arizona 6-10
Wow, does this division stink.
Seattle 5-11
I expected them to be a little better than this. They'll probably win most of their home games, anyway.
San Francisco 1-15
Dibs on Michael Crabtree!
AFC EAST
New England 12-4
If Tom Brady plays fewer than a dozen games, all bets are off.
NY Jets 11-5 [WILD CARD]
Really? I must be giving Favre too much credit.
Buffalo 8-8
They'll play just well enough down the stretch that they'll really disappoint people in 2009.
Miami 7-9
The Chad Pennington Project sounds like a better name for a band than a game plan.
AFC NORTH
Pittsburgh 11-5
O-line is the key. It's anyone's guess how it'll work this year.
Cleveland 10-6
Will make a late-season push to squeak into the playoffs (via tiebreaker!). Could it be Brady Quinn's magic?
Cincinnati 4-12
I thought they'd do better, but not by much. Coach Marvin Lewis has officially lost control of his team. It belongs to karma now.
Baltimore 3-13
Still a world-class defense, but they can't play all 60 minutes.
AFC SOUTH
Indianapolis 11-5
I actually expect them to struggle this year; 11-5 may be a reach. Missing the playoffs is a distinct possibility.
Houston 10-6 [WILD CARD]
Also squeaks into the playoffs via tiebreaker. Steve Slaton is my pick for offensive rookie of the year.
Tennessee 10-6
Edged out of the playoffs with losses in tight games. Probably overachievers on my sheet.
Jacksonville 7-9
Damn, this is a tough division. The record looks like a lowball, but there's no way David Garrard can keep up his pace from last year.
AFC WEST
San Diego 11-5
Still the class of the division, but not very explosive unless Phillip Rivers really takes the Leap. Look for an early exit in the playoffs.
Denver 9-7
The hopes of Broncos fans -- and my fantasy team -- rely on Jay Cutler. Boom or bust time.
Oakland 5-11
I've come to the conclusion that Oakland is never going to get any better until Al Davis dies. Sorry, Al.
Kansas City
Quick: name their quarterback! Can't do it, can you? Tony Gonzalez will be asking for his release by week six.
no subject
Date: 2008-09-05 05:32 pm (UTC)Seriously, though... Houston at 10-6??? Things must have really changed since I left. Oh, and I heart Jay Cutler.
Shannon